In 1998, Andrew Wakefield, a now discredited doctor in the United Kingdom, published a paper claiming that the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine caused autism. Wakefield’s paper wasn’t a study; it was a report of eight children who had recently received an MMR vaccine and developed autism. The paper was eventually retracted when it became clear that Wakefield had falsified clinical and biological data.
Despite the fraudulent nature of the paper, Wakefield had raised a question: “Does the MMR vaccine cause autism?” This was a scientific question best answered in a scientific venue. And it was. More than a dozen studies performed in seven countries on three continents involving tens of thousands of children found that children who had received the MMR vaccine were not at greater risk of autism than those who hadn’t.
On January 30, 2025, the issue of vaccines and autism resurfaced during Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s confirmation hearing for Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS). In his opening statement, RFK Jr. said that more children are now suffering from chronic diseases than ever before. Later, he gave a specific incidence: 1 in 36, which is the incidence of autism spectrum disorder in the United States. For years, RFK Jr. had been paid by his organization, Children’s Health Defense, to convince the public and the media that vaccines cause autism. During his confirmation hearing, he used three strategies typical of personal injury lawyers paid to represent a position.
Strategy #1: Deny the existence of studies that don’t support your position. Senator William Cassidy (R, LA) asked RFK Jr. to reassure parents that vaccines don’t cause autism. “If the data is there,” said Kennedy, “I will absolutely do that.” Senator Bernie Sanders (I, VT) was surprised by RFK Jr.’s answer, pointing out that “dozens of studies done all over the world make it very clear that vaccines do not cause autism.” Still, Kennedy refused to acknowledge them.
Strategy #2: Promote any study that supports your position, no matter how poorly done. Toward the end of the hearing, RFK Jr. offered a “high quality” study that he believed proved his point that vaccines caused autism. The study, which included 9-year-old children enrolled in the Medicaid program in Florida, was critically flawed:
1) It was published on a Word Press Blog, not in a medical or scientific journal.
2) It was “peer-reviewed” by Peter McCullough, a well-known anti-vaccine activist.
3) Both study authors had previously published studies on vaccines that were retracted.
4) The study was funded by the National Vaccine Information Center, an anti-vaccine group.
5) The authors failed to determine whether their “unvaccinated” children had been vaccinated outside of the Medicaid system, such as through the Vaccine for Children’s Program.
6) The authors ignored confounding factors such as healthcare-seeking behavior. Parents who choose not to vaccinate their children might also visit the doctor less frequently, causing the diagnosis of autism to be missed.
7) The authors didn’t determine whether the diagnosis of autism was made before or after the first vaccine was given.
These methodological flaws rendered the paper meaningless, begging the question of why RFK Jr. chose it to counter the dozens of other studies that had been well-controlled, peer-reviewed, and published in excellent journals.
Strategy #3: Say that anyone who disagrees with you is a shill for Big Pharma. During the Senate hearing, RFK Jr. claimed that Senator Bernie Sanders, who had subjected him to tough questions, had received “millions of dollars from the pharmaceutical industry to protect their interests.” In truth, Sanders hadn’t received a penny from pharmaceutical company executives. RFK Jr.’s claims of Big Pharma influence reached the level of parody when he was asked to comment on a letter signed by 77 Nobel Prize winners stating that he would put American public health in “jeopardy.” RFK Jr. quickly responded that the senators should check the Nobel Prize winner's “conflicts of interest.”
Should he be confirmed, RFK Jr. will no doubt continue with his playbook to promote false claims about vaccine safety. This time, however, it will be written on the letterhead of the Secretary of HHS. Under RFK Jr.’s leadership, will new parents feel comfortable vaccinating their children?
#Reprinted with the author's permission. His original Substack piece can be read here.
Paul A. Offit, MD, is Director of the Vaccine Education Center and professor of pediatrics in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. He is the Maurice R. Hilleman Professor of Vaccinology at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania. He is an internationally recognized expert in the fields of virology and immunology, and was a member of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He is a member of the Food and Drug Administration Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, and a founding advisory board member of the Autism Science Foundation and the Foundation for Vaccine Research, a member of the Institute of Medicine and co-editor of the foremost vaccine text, Vaccines.
